On The Turning Away

Choose always the way that seems the best, however rough it may be; custom will soon render it easy and agreeable.
- Pythagoras

“[W]hat better time to hook up than a beautiful fall evening while waving a banner for democracy?” Wait, scratch that, and replace it with Obama. Now you have a perfect pinup for the “young and intelligent”: the Illinois senator is having a fund-raiser rally tonight in Washington Square Park.

As always, it takes Gawker to decode the message: “the hottest rally in New York” will should “provide even the most unattractive and inept among you with the opportunity to get some hot, politically-motivated ass.”

We can debate whether “[l]eftie girls are easy“, but their hero’s voice we heard at last night’s Dems debate wasn’t all that bold inspiring. In fact, there seemed little daylight between Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton, on issues ranging from troop withdrawal to social security reforms.
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Last month, “Currency Wars”, billed as a “discussion of global banking and its effects on China, by a veteran of the US financial sector”, made it to the top ten list on Douban.com, a popular book review and recommendation site in China.

The book has become a surprise hit not the lease because its author, a Chinese native who has lived in the US since 1994 as an “IT consultant and amateur historian”, was hitherto little known. But his controversial claims that disparate historical events spanning the last two centuries can largely be attributed to the “control of money issuance by the Rothschild banking dynasty” have catapulted him to the limelight as an authority on financial markets.
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Murdoch’s right-hand man yesterday fired a first salvo “in the battle to establish the Wall Street Journal as a global financial-news brand”. And the message to its arch rival, the FT, is clear: “News Corp will crush it.”

In fact, WSJ and its new corp overlord may not need to try so hard. In North America, WSJ, with a circulation of more than 2 million, already outshines the FT which, with a circulation of about 450,000, ostensibly aims to serve a “niche” market of global business leaders and politicians.

We can debate the merits of going “niche” versus targeting a mass market, but first, the FT must deliver the paper to those esoteric readers. In New York (presumably the largest market for FT in North America) at least, it has been struggling with operation and distribution. Earlier this year we were told the transition to a new distributor was to blame for frequent missed deliveries. Today we were told a “printing problem” caused the no-show of the pink paper.
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Ever the self-appointed warrior for the working man, Lou Dobbs has had a field day with China this summer. Predictably, he ratcheted up his China-bashing rhetoric as temperatures went up. In the end, we were not sure which was more menacing, the ostentatiously outraged Dobbs shouting “red China” or the maelstrom of Mattel’s toy recalls.

The latest twist in this summer of discontent for the “made in China” label is the highly publicized apology Mattel offered to “the Chinese people”. You could be forgiven for scratching your head over Mattel’s volte-face. That toys manufactured in China got the bad rap is one thing. It’s quite another for Mattel to come clean in an “unusual” PR move to salvage its business relationship with China.
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Never doubt that a handful of caring, committed individuals can change the world, indeed it’s the only thing that ever has.
- Margaret Mead (1901 - 1978)

The purportedly redesigned September issue of Portfolio has yet to arrive, but its content has been available online since last week. So we placed a call to their subscription department and to our amusement, was simply told to wait until Oct 5th to be considered “late”. We could barely hide our disbelief - who in their right mind would find it palatable to read the Sept issue of a monthly in October?

It would be a stretch to say that we were terribly impressed by the lackluster first couple issues - the quality of the articles is debatable at best and the scope of the coverage leaves much to be desired. No wonder the overhyped Conde Nast glossy has been under a barrage of criticism - “unfocused, unwieldy and uninspiring” seems be the constant refrain.
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There’s something incongruous here. Before the Fed announcement this afternoon, futures markets suggested a 50 bp cut. Then why the decision is widely seen as a surprise? Some argue that the Fed has done some parsing and recognizes a weakening economy. It is simply “frontloading” to fend off a recession in the wake of a credit seizure.

Rates cut will no doubt be stimulative to the economy for it not only boosts business investment but also has a positive impact on consumption. However, a minority dissents. They believe it’s the Fed’s job to balance risks with growth outlook. Lowering the symbolic discount rate, coupled with a moderate 25 bp cut in Fed funding rate, will help unclog the debt market, which ultimately lifts the financials.
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Financial markets are holding their breath ahead of Fed’s decision on interest rates tomorrow. “Stocks Fall As Fed Decision Looms“, shouts the AP headline, while Alan Greenspan, the former Fed chairman, graces the cover of FT - ostensibly for the release of his memoir.

To casual observers, the timing of Greenspan’s book is at least curious. It would not be too far a stretch to view it as part of a PR plot to reassure the markets, which are, after all, clamoring for a 50bp cut. At the same time some regional Fed presidents have argued, convincingly, to hold the rates. However, it looks increasingly likely that Wall Street will have to make do with a 25 bp reduction.
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Earlier this year, Beijing-based Soho China, a property developer, reportedly hired Goldman Sachs and HSBC to revive its IPO, shelved in 2002 amid market slump. Now words come out: the company plans to sell about 31% stake and raise as much as $1.65 billion in Hong Kong.

Mainland Chinese developers are tapping the Hong Kong stock market to fund new projects amid the mad dash to build offices and homes as Beijing prepares to host the 2008 Olympic Games. Meanwhile, Chinese government has cut back bank lending to the industry on the mainland.

Soho was founded by Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin - the subject of my “little red book” - in 1995. The couple ranked 237th on Forbes’s list of 400 richest people in China last year.
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